GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 7/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Tampa Bay Rowdies are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lexington are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 13.5-point power-rating edge (68.3 v 54.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.9% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Probability

52.9%

Model confidence

52.9%

Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Tampa Bay RowdiesWLDWW

GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LexingtonDWDWL

GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Tampa Bay RowdiesLexington
63.2Attack51.9
66.7Defence59.3
71.9Form51.9
68.3Power54.8
1.73xG0.91
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