Tampa Bay Rowdiesvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 7/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tampa Bay Rowdies are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lexington are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 13.5-point power-rating edge (68.3 v 54.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.9% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00