Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leganes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Swansea are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Leganes are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Leganes hold a 12.8-point power-rating edge (54.9 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Leganes holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Leganes
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Leganes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20