Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogdiana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Surkhon are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Sogdiana are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 42.9 against 42.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.8% in the Super League, while Sogdiana holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sogdiana
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
12.8%
Sogdiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80