Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alashkert · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Surkhon are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Alashkert are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Alashkert hold a 25.6-point power-rating edge (19.9 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Alashkert holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Alashkert
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Alashkert has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40