Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartans · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Stranraer are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Spartans are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Spartans hold a 46.5-point power-rating edge (21.5 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.8% in the League Two, while Spartans holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Spartans
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
11.8%
Spartans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00