Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Stevenage are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Millwall are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Stevenage hold a 16.0-point power-rating edge (63.4 v 47.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Stevenage holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20