Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aalesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Start are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Aalesund are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Aalesund hold a 7.3-point power-rating edge (28.6 v 36.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.6% in the Eliteserien, while Aalesund holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aalesund
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
10.6%
Aalesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 12 · GA 14 · avg 2.40/2.80