GGOALVIO

USA · MLS Next Pro · 5/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tacoma Defiance · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

Sporting KC II are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Tacoma Defiance are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Tacoma Defiance hold a 17.1-point power-rating edge (32.5 v 49.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.9% in the MLS Next Pro, while Tacoma Defiance holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tacoma Defiance

Probability

53.9%

Model confidence

53.9%

Tacoma Defiance has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sporting KC IILWDLL

GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Tacoma DefianceWLLLL

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Sporting KC IITacoma Defiance
43.9Attack45.5
16.7Defence51.5
28.8Form47.0
32.5Power49.6
1.34xG2.23
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