GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 7/23/2026, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Minnesota United FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Sporting Kansas City are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Minnesota United FC are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Minnesota United FC hold an 18.9-point power-rating edge (28.1 v 47.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.2% in the Major League Soccer, while Minnesota United FC holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Minnesota United FC

Probability

55.5%

Model confidence

12.2%

Minnesota United FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sporting Kansas CityLLWWL

GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Minnesota United FCDLLDW

GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Sporting Kansas CityMinnesota United FC
33.3Attack37.0
14.8Defence53.7
25.9Form44.4
28.1Power47.1
0.95xG1.79
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