Sporting JAXvs
Tampa Bay Rowdies
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 4/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Sporting JAX are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Tampa Bay Rowdies are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 43.2-point power-rating edge (25.1 v 68.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 79.0% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Probability
79.0%
Model confidence
79.0%
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 9 · GA 1 · avg 1.80/0.20