GGOALVIO

England · National League - North · 8/15/2026, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Merthyr Town · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Spennymoor Town are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Merthyr Town are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Merthyr Town hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 88.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the National League - North, while Merthyr Town holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Merthyr Town

Probability

40.7%

Model confidence

13.9%

Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Spennymoor TownDWLLD

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Merthyr TownWLWWL

GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Spennymoor TownMerthyr Town
33.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence100.0
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power88.7
1.16xG1.39
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