Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arbroath · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Spartans are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Arbroath are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Arbroath hold a 14.9-point power-rating edge (30.3 v 45.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.9% in the League Cup, while Arbroath holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arbroath
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Arbroath has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20