GGOALVIO

Bulgaria · First League · 8/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Spartak Varna · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0

Mediumconfidence

Spartak Varna are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Septemvri Sofia are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Spartak Varna hold a 48.9-point power-rating edge (74.7 v 25.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.4% in the First League, while Spartak Varna holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Spartak Varna

Probability

64.9%

Model confidence

13.4%

Spartak Varna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Spartak VarnaLWWDW

GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Septemvri SofiaLLLDW

GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
66.7Attack22.2
77.8Defence33.3
77.8Form11.1
74.7Power25.8
1.94xG0.71
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