Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buxton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Southport are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Buxton are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Buxton hold a 65.0-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the National League - North, while Buxton holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Buxton
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
13.2%
Buxton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00