South MelbournevsAdelaide United

South Melbourne are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Adelaide United are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and South Melbourne hold a 41.2-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.3% in the Australia Cup, while South Melbourne holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.