Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sousa · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sousa are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Laguna are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Sousa hold a 19.6-point power-rating edge (40.0 v 20.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.2% in the Serie D, while Sousa holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sousa
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Sousa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80