Somersetvs
Burnie Utd.
COMPLETEDAustralia · Tasmania Northern Championship · 8/1/2026, 4:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Somerset · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-4
Somerset are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 2.60 scored and 3.40 conceded, while Burnie Utd. are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 2.60 scored and 3.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Somerset hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (39.4 v 32.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.7% in the Tasmania Northern Championship, while Somerset holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 97% BTTS chance and 99% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Somerset
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Somerset has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 17 · avg 2.60/3.40
GF 13 · GA 18 · avg 2.60/3.60