Somersetvs
Burnie Utd.
COMPLETEDAustralia · Tasmania Northern Championship · 3/21/2026, 3:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Somerset · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-4
Somerset are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Burnie Utd. are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 3.00 scored and 4.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Somerset hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (39.4 v 32.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.7% in the Tasmania Northern Championship, while Somerset holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 97% BTTS chance and 99% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Somerset
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Somerset has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40
GF 15 · GA 21 · avg 3.00/4.20