Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogndal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Sogndal are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Moss are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Moss hold a 2.2-point power-rating edge (38.3 v 40.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 6.6% in the 1. Division, while Sogndal holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 87% BTTS chance and 90% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sogndal
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
6.6%
Sogndal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20