Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogdiana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Sogdiana are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Surkhon are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Sogdiana hold a 3.6-point power-rating edge (44.9 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.9% in the Super League, while Sogdiana holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sogdiana
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Sogdiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20