Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogdiana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Sogdiana are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Rustavi are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sogdiana hold a 24.7-point power-rating edge (48.3 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Sogdiana holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sogdiana
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Sogdiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20