Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Sogdiana are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Neftchi are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 36.8-point power-rating edge (44.9 v 81.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 77.8% in the Super League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 78% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
77.8%
Model confidence
77.8%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00