Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Smorgon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Smorgon are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while BATE II are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Smorgon hold a 9.0-point power-rating edge (39.4 v 30.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.1% in the 1. Division, while Smorgon holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Smorgon
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
11.1%
Smorgon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00