Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Skanste · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Skanste are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Mārupe are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Mārupe hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (44.2 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.4% in the 1. Liga, while Skanste holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Skanste
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Skanste has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80