Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
SJK are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Ilves are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Ilves hold a 6.2-point power-rating edge (42.3 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.2% in the Veikkausliiga, while Ilves holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ilves
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Ilves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00