Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sioni · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sioni are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Samtredia are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Sioni hold a 9.6-point power-rating edge (59.0 v 49.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.8% in the Erovnuli Liga 2, while Sioni holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sioni
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Sioni has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20