Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sioni · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sioni are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Samtredia are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sioni hold a 9.6-point power-rating edge (59.0 v 49.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.8% in the Erovnuli Liga 2, while Sioni holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sioni
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Sioni has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80