Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Shturmi are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Samtredia are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Samtredia hold a 3.3-point power-rating edge (46.1 v 49.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.2% in the Erovnuli Liga 2, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80