Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sassuolo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Sassuolo are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Parma are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Sassuolo hold a 12.5-point power-rating edge (72.8 v 60.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Sassuolo holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sassuolo
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Sassuolo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40