Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sassuolo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Sassuolo are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Cesena are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sassuolo hold a 20.1-point power-rating edge (51.4 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.0% in the Coppa Italia, while Sassuolo holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sassuolo
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
11.0%
Sassuolo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80