Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sasel · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Sasel are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 2.80 scored and 4.00 conceded, while Buchholz are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Buchholz hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (40.7 v 47.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.9% in the Oberliga - Hamburg, while Sasel holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sasel
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Sasel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 20 · avg 2.80/4.00
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40