Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Sao Paulo are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Palmeiras are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold an 18.4-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.7% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
16.7%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00