Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sao Paulo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sao Paulo are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Coritiba are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 49.4 against 49.4. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.6% in the Serie A, while Sao Paulo holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sao Paulo
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
14.6%
Sao Paulo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60