Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sao Jose are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Treze are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Treze hold a 7.1-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 57.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.4% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20