Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sao Jose are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Azuriz are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Jose hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.7% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 13% BTTS chance and 6% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00