Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Santos are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Macara are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Macara hold a 2.0-point power-rating edge (61.1 v 63.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.2% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Santos holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
15.2%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80