Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Santos are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Coritiba are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Coritiba hold a 5.4-point power-rating edge (43.9 v 49.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 33.6% in the Serie A, while Santos holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
33.6%
Model confidence
33.6%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80