GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga MX · 8/17/2026, 1:10:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Guadalajara Chivas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Santos Laguna are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Guadalajara Chivas are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Guadalajara Chivas hold a 28.3-point power-rating edge (19.2 v 47.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Liga MX, while Guadalajara Chivas holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Guadalajara Chivas

Probability

44.0%

Model confidence

13.7%

Guadalajara Chivas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Santos LagunaLLLLL

GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Guadalajara ChivasLDDWL

GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
Santos LagunaGuadalajara Chivas
22.2Attack22.2
22.2Defence66.7
0.0Form44.4
19.2Power47.5
1.10xG1.46
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