Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
San Telmo are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Quilmes are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Quilmes hold a 9.3-point power-rating edge (42.0 v 51.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.9% in the Primera Nacional, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 20% BTTS chance and 12% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60