Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
San Telmo are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Acassuso are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 42.0 against 40.6. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.7% in the Primera Nacional, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 12% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40