GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 8/16/2026, 2:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

San Jose Earthquakes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

San Jose Earthquakes are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.60 conceded, while St. Louis City are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and San Jose Earthquakes hold a 10.3-point power-rating edge (61.5 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.9% in the Major League Soccer, while San Jose Earthquakes holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

San Jose Earthquakes

Probability

58.3%

Model confidence

10.9%

San Jose Earthquakes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

San Jose EarthquakesLDLWL

GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
St. Louis CityDWWWW

GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
San Jose EarthquakesSt. Louis City
68.5Attack44.4
55.6Defence55.6
61.1Form48.1
61.5Power51.1
2.04xG1.06
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