Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Diego · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
San Diego are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Puebla are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and San Diego hold a 29.5-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.6% in the Leagues Cup, while San Diego holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
San Diego
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
11.6%
San Diego has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20