Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Diego · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
San Diego are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Austin are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and San Diego hold a 12.4-point power-rating edge (49.6 v 37.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.1% in the Major League Soccer, while San Diego holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
San Diego
Probability
65.1%
Model confidence
65.1%
San Diego has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00