San Antoniovs
New Mexico United
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 3/22/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
San Antonio are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while New Mexico United are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and New Mexico United hold a 3.6-point power-rating edge (57.5 v 61.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.7% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60