Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Samtredia are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Telavi are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Telavi hold a 9.6-point power-rating edge (49.4 v 59.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.1% in the Erovnuli Liga 2, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20