Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samtredia · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Samtredia are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Gori are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Samtredia hold a 7.9-point power-rating edge (49.4 v 41.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 19.3% in the Erovnuli Liga 2, while Samtredia holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Samtredia
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
19.3%
Samtredia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80