Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sampdoria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Sampdoria are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Novara are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Sampdoria hold an 18.5-point power-rating edge (70.9 v 52.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Sampdoria holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sampdoria
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Sampdoria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60