Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sampdoria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Sampdoria are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Cagliari are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Sampdoria hold a 21.4-point power-rating edge (70.9 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Sampdoria holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sampdoria
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Sampdoria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20