Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SalPa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
SalPa are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while TPV are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and SalPa hold an 11.7-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.9% in the Ykkönen, while SalPa holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
SalPa
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
SalPa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00