GGOALVIO

USA · USL League One Cup · 4/26/2026, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sacramento Republic · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Sacramento Republic are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Spokane Velocity are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sacramento Republic hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (60.3 v 57.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.6% in the USL League One Cup, while Sacramento Republic holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Sacramento Republic

Probability

41.6%

Model confidence

41.6%

Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sacramento RepublicDDWLD

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Spokane VelocityWWDLW

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Sacramento RepublicSpokane Velocity
50.0Attack46.7
75.0Defence53.3
58.3Form66.7
60.3Power57.5
1.51xG1.04
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